Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

Reader beware! Take anything you read on Wikipedia or anything on the Web with a pound of salt. All too often the information is dead wrong or incomplete or based on old or 2nd-hand references. There ain't no fact-checkers working 24/7, making sure what you read on the Web is on the up and up.

However, I did take applied statistics at my alma mater, Hunter College, and I've read up on statistics before and after college. So, I think I know what I'm talking about. When I say here that the below Wikipedia entry is correct.

Wikipedia: "Correlation Does Not Imply Causation"

This is a very common logical fallacy. Confusing correlation with causation. Correlation is the relationship between two variables. Causation is when one variable has an effect on another variable. Correlation may suggest a causal relationship between the two variables. Or the seemingly causal relationship may be only coincidental. Statisticians and scientists are always warned to remember that "correlation does not imply causation."

But, what the hell does all this have to do with my campaign against college education?

Too many idiots who don't know what statistics is really all about. They like to cite the U.S. government's statistics that, over a lifetime, a college degree translates into an extra million dollars over a high school graduate's income. See the below link.

About.com: "Lifetime Earnings Soar with Education"

In other words, a college degree = $1 million. More education = more income.

Sounds right. But how about this argument.

Smart kids go to college. Smart kids who have the funds usually go to college. Smart kids usually finish college within four to five years. Smart kids with degrees usually get good jobs. Smart kids with degrees usually earn over a lifetime more than most high school graduates.

Sounds right. Don't you think so? Did the smart kids who finished college earn more than the high school graduates because they were smart or because they had college degrees?

I would argue that the smart kids, the majority, would have earned more than the high school graduates whether they went to college or did not. Smart kids are smart with or without a sheepskin.

I would go far outside the box and say that the smart kids would have earned even more than the high school graduates if they didn't bother with college at all.

Education is part of the puzzle to making the big bucks. But not the biggest component. Sometimes it doesn't count at all.

I'm 100% for learning, but I'm 100% against education. Especially, higher education.

It's a complete waste of time and money. Smart kids are better off learning about the real world. As soon as possible. Because that's where we all have to live in. The real world.

College Lie #1: College Degree = Good Job

This Mon. morning before the start of my shift I was talking to Eddie. One of many Eddies who work at my day job.

Eddie said, "If you have a college degree, you can get a good job."

I said, "Eddie, I'll give you $50 if you can tell me where these good jobs are."

Then I added, "I'll give you a $100 if you can help me get one of these good jobs. Because I really need a good job."

But did Eddie know where these good jobs for college graduates like me were? Of course not.

Because they only exist in an imaginary fantasy world. Where imaginary employers pay top dollar for college graduates. Starting salaries of $50K to $100K a year with full benefits.

Can you say, "Full Benefits?" Boys and girls. Plus dental too.

College Lie #1: A college degree = a good job.

The truth is a college degree, depending on where you went and what you studied, may give you a chance to compete for a good job.

A college degree is part of the puzzle. For most, not even a necessary part of the puzzle. For some careers, a college degree is a must. Of course.

With or without that piece of paper, a thousand and one variables can work for you and work against you when you go on your job hunt. Your looks, your height, your weight, your age, your ethnicity, your gender, your social network, or lack thereof, your clothes, your mental state, your social intelligence, your past work experience, your local economy, the global economy, and on and on.

And lets not forget pure luck. Being in the right place at the right time will always beat some stinking piece of paper. Most degrees are definitely not worth $20K or more in student loans.

To end, I'll happily take an ounce of luck over a pound of sheepskins any day of the year.

Say, "NO!" to College

Under construction. Please, be patient. As I make changes/additions. Thank you.

Published: Mar. 27, 2006.
"Is College Worth It?" by Rich Karlaard

Rightly, he applies hard-nosed financial analysis to that all too expensive college degree.

Updated: Aug. 22, 2008.
"Is College Still Worth the Price?" by Penelope Wang

Great article by a Money magazine senior writer.

Is college still worth the price? I think you know my answer. No.

Definitely no if you have to go into debt. In order to pay for it. I've read and heard too many student loan horror stories. Tens of thousands of youthful lives ruined. A few rare cases of suicide. Student debt drowned, not only their dreams, but also their souls.

Unrealistic dream careers smashed by the cold hard fist of reality. The lies of college realized all too late. After five to six years wasted in an ivory tower. Five or six years which could have been better spent on a real education in the real world.

FYI: The SayNoToCollege.com forum is not by me. A totally independently created online forum. But exactly what I would have wanted in an online forum for anti-college thinkers. College Alternatives, Success Stories, and Student Loans discussion boards.

What can I say? Brilliant minds think alike.

Say, "NO!" to College. No to college degrees, yes to learning.
--Master Hun